Fourth-Down Analyzer
Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.
How It Works → · How the go/kick/punt math works →
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Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 21Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 91%
(6:40) 34-D.Zvada 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 75%
(15:00) 34-D.Zvada 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(13:09) 15-J.Stout punts 48 yards to ARI 15, Center-58-B.Mann. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 27 for 12 yards (31-N.Jones; 41-M.McFadden).
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Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(11:31) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to NYG 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 59%
(10:07) 15-J.Stout punts 51 yards to ARI 17, Center-58-B.Mann, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(8:35) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to NYG 44, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 87-B.Berrios to NYG 44 for no gain (86-J.Brooks).
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Q4 ARI 4th & 18 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(14:05) 12-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to NYG 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 89-C.Jones to NYG 16 for 6 yards (80-S.Fehoko). ARI-89-H.Long was injured during the play.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(9:34) 12-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to NYG 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 89-C.Jones ran ob at NYG 33 for 23 yards (12-B.Gillikin).
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Q4 NYG 4th & 16 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 30%
(6:13) 15-J.Stout punts 47 yards to ARI 3, Center-58-B.Mann, downed by NYG-31-N.Jones.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 94 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(4:53) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to 50, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 89-C.Jones.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 34 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 71%
(2:16) 34-D.Zvada 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 4 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%
(:11) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Banks at NYG 2. 2-D.Banks for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 NO 4th & 18 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(12:50) 17-R.Wright punts 57 yards to ATL 24, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 49 for 25 yards (4-O.Delp).
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Q1 ATL 4th & 12 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 60%
(10:25) 16-J.Bailey punts 28 yards to NO 13, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-B.Brown.
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Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 76%
(5:08) 10-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 14 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(3:04) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to NO 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-B.Brown to NO 20 for 2 yards (89-C.Woerner; 53-K.Daniels).
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Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(8:00) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to ATL 14, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%
(3:10) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
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Q2 NO 4th & 16 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 45%
(:49) 17-R.Wright punts 39 yards to ATL 8, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.
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Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%
(7:40) 10-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 55%
(1:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 14-D.Vele to ATL 25 for 18 yards (31-X.Watts).
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Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 16Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 95%
(13:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to ATL 14 for 2 yards (99-C.Thomas; 54-B.Dorlus).
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Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 70Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(8:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at NO 21 for -9 yards (52-S.Ebukam).
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Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 50 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 38%
(3:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 27 for 23 yards (33-B.Bowman) [52-S.Ebukam].
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Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 92%
(5:13) 17-B.Aubrey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q1 HOU 4th & 12 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 78%
(1:53) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 79%
(12:34) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(10:30) 38-K.Kroeger punts 56 yards to DAL 15, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 31 for 16 yards (56-J.Hill).
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Q2 DAL 4th & 16 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(8:23) 5-B.Anger punts 57 yards to HOU 17, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-J.Noel to HOU 17 for no gain (11-A.Clark).
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Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(7:22) 38-K.Kroeger punts 55 yards to DAL 25, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 36 for 11 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 56-J.Hill).
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Q2 DAL 4th & 11 at the 44Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 53%
(5:02) 17-B.Aubrey 62 yard field goal is BLOCKED (51-W.Anderson), Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 20Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 93%
(2:08) 15-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 16 at the 47Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 45%
(:30) 17-B.Aubrey 65 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 72%
(:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(5:12) 38-K.Kroeger punts 45 yards to DAL 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 19 for 6 yards (8-C.Stover).
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Q4 HOU 4th & 14 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(8:51) 38-K.Kroeger punts 52 yards to DAL 17, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 31 for 14 yards (87-F.Moreau).
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Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(7:08) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to HOU 5, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-J.Noel to HOU 13 for 8 yards (30-H.Luepke; 89-B.Spann-Ford).
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Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 68 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 39 for 7 yards (2-C.Bullock).
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Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(14:17) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 57 yards to SF 6, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
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Q1 SF 4th & 6 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(9:38) 15-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to DEN 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
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Q1 DEN 4th & 11 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 74%
(1:48) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 34Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 74%
(14:30) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to DEN 34 for no gain (49-A.Singleton).
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Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(12:43) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to SF 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
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Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 79Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EPp(convert) 74%
(10:36) 15-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to DEN 30, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 42%
(5:13) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.
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Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%
(1:38) 18-E.Pineiro 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(:47) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 44 yards to SF 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
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Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(14:05) 15-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to DEN 23, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EPp(convert) 61%
(10:52) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to SF 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing.
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Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(9:52) 15-C.Waitman punts 61 yards to DEN 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-M.Mims to DEN 29 for 1 yard (33-S.Neal). FUMBLES (33-S.Neal), RECOVERED by SF-33-S.Neal at DEN 28. 33-S.Neal to DEN 28 for no gain (19-M.Mims).
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Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 19Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 93%
(7:24) (Shotgun) 26-K.Black up the middle to DEN 17 for 2 yards (22-B.Jones).
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Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 22Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EPp(convert) 57% p(FG) 91%
(14:12) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 51 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 32%
(1:52) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 1-E.Engram to SF 45 for 6 yards (57-D.Greenlaw).
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Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 40 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 60%
(1:18) 3-W.Lutz 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q1 DET 4th & 12 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 71%
(12:09) 39-J.Bates 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 12 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(7:49) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to DET 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.
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Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(5:59) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to CAR 38, Center-49-H.Hatten, out of bounds. PENALTY on CAR-38-R.Rochell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 38. Penalty on CAR-27-I.Simmons, Offensive Holding, declined.
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Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 88%
(12:41) 39-J.Bates 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 56%
(8:52) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 13-J.Metchie to DET 32 for 10 yards (36-C.Clark).
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Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 83%
(:32) 10-R.Fitzgerald 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%
(6:24) 39-J.Bates 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
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Q4 DET 4th & 19 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 41%
(14:49) 3-J.Fox punts 34 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 68%
(11:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 88-D.Waller to DET 28 for 9 yards (27-J.Mills).
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Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%
(9:03) 10-R.Fitzgerald 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q4 DET 4th & 20 at the 25Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EPp(convert) 22% p(FG) 88%
(7:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to CAR 21 for 4 yards. Lateral to 0-J.Gibbs to CAR 12 for 9 yards (55-D.Lloyd).
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Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(6:14) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to DET 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy. Penalty on DET-53-T.Nowaske, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
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Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 10 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%
(4:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta to CAR 3 for 7 yards (55-D.Lloyd; 20-Z.Wheatley).
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Q4 CAR 4th & 11 at the 51 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 34%
(2:12) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to DET 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.
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Q4 DET 4th & 13 at the 90 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.93 EPp(convert) 35%
(1:29) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa to DET 22 for 12 yards (22-L.Ransom; 24-W.Lee).
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Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EPp(convert) 62%
(13:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to GB 29, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-S.Moore.
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Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EPp(convert) 62% p(FG) 50%
(10:27) 19-D.Whelan punts 30 yards to TB 14, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.
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Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 28Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 84%
(3:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at TB 18 for 10 yards (22-K.Scott).
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Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 9Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 98%
(1:17) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 85-T.Kraft. 85-T.Kraft up the middle to TB 6 for 3 yards (45-J.Trotter).
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Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 99%
(12:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(11:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to GB 24, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-S.Moore.
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Q2 GB 4th & 16 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(10:38) 19-D.Whelan punts 36 yards to TB 46, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-42-M.Orzech.
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Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 19Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 93%
(6:45) 44-S.Tucker up the middle to GB 11 for 8 yards (29-X.McKinney; 25-K.Nixon).
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Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 69Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 50%
(3:22) 19-D.Whelan punts 53 yards to TB 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.
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Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 48%
(1:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.Hurst to GB 41 for 4 yards (2-B.Cisse).
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Q3 TB 4th & 16 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(8:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to GB 30, Center-86-E.Deckers. 23-S.Moore to GB 38 for 8 yards (19-K.Johnson).
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Q3 GB 4th & 12 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(6:30) 19-D.Whelan punts 61 yards to TB 3, Center-42-M.Orzech. 15-T.Johnson to TB 16 for 13 yards (7-J.Bullard).
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Q4 TB 4th & 11 at the 47 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 42%
(1:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle intended for 17-T.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon [33-E.Williams] at GB 43. 25-K.Nixon to GB 43 for no gain (17-T.Hurst). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 17-T.Hurst (25-K.Nixon) [33-E.Williams].
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Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 13Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EPp(convert) 56% p(FG) 96%
(13:01) 19-D.Stevens 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 56%
(10:50) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to WAS 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 83-J.Lane to WAS 19 for 8 yards (58-A.Ajiake).
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Q1 WAS 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%
(6:24) 19-D.Stevens 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(5:31) 8-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to WAS 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 83-J.Lane to WAS 31 for 14 yards (38-J.Owens). ** Injury Update: WAS-83-J.Lane has returned to the game. PENALTY on WAS-35-P.Butler, Illegal Blindside Block, 13 yards, enforced at WAS 26.
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Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EPp(convert) 63%
(2:43) 10-T.Way punts 49 yards to IND 18, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
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Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EPp(convert) 73%
(:27) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to WAS 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(12:45) 10-T.Way punts 34 yards to IND 39, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-32-C.Reynolds.
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Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 52Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 27%
(10:35) 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 20-S.McGowan left guard to WAS 44 for 8 yards (2-A.Robertson; 45-K.Chaisson). WAS-2-A.Robertson was injured during the play.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 54Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(8:34) 32-C.Reynolds up the middle to WAS 46 for no gain (94-J.Tillery; 57-J.Carlies).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(1:16) 10-T.Way punts 37 yards to IND 19, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
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Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 80%
(:03) 3-S.Shrader 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 34Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EPp(convert) 59% p(FG) 72%
(7:07) 3-S.Shrader 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 18 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 47%
(4:57) 10-T.Way punts 33 yards to IND 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould. PENALTY on WAS-56-K.Medrano, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 11.
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Q3 IND 4th & 11 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(3:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to WAS 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-A.Williams.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(1:43) 10-T.Way punts 36 yards to IND 48, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 54Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(8:19) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short right to 22-J.Croskey-Merritt [97-L.Latu].
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 26Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EPp(convert) 69% p(FG) 86%
(5:52) 3-S.Shrader 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 40 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 57%
(3:25) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 6-D.Brown to IND 32 for 8 yards (7-C.Ward).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 WAS 4th & 14 at the 36 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EPp(convert) 28% p(FG) 68%
(1:53) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Burks (7-C.Ward).
See the full breakdown →
-
Q1 JAX 4th & 10 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(12:27) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 24 for 4 yards (47-D.Gardeck). PENALTY on CIN-38-D.Ivey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(7:50) 8-R.Rehkow punts 42 yards to JAX 19, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
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Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 67%
(2:23) 39-C.Little 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%
(10:07) 2-E.McPherson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%
(4:19) 39-C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 54Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown to JAX 45 for 9 yards (2-J.Lewis).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 69%
(3:05) 39-C.Little 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 41Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 57%
(11:47) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(10:39) 8-R.Rehkow punts 41 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-W.Wagner. 11-P.Washington to JAX 24 for 3 yards (46-W.Wagner).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 JAX 4th & 8 at the 53 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 27%
(1:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 17 for 9 yards (50-B.Combs; 25-R.Lane).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 21 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.43 EPp(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%
(:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to JAX 12 for 9 yards (25-R.Lane).
See the full breakdown →
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Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 70Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 36%
(13:21) (Punt formation) 14-M.Araiza right end to KC 42 for 12 yards (34-C.Heyward).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 38%
(10:48) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle to LV 49 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LV 4th & 14 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(:08) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to KC 14, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 50%
(11:28) 14-M.Araiza punts 33 yards to LV 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-10-E.Johnson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 61Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68%
(9:21) Direct snap to 34-C.Heyward. 34-C.Heyward up the middle to LV 40 for 1 yard (8-K.Fulton; 43-J.Cochrane).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%
(3:23) 14-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%
(1:26) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 18Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 94%
(11:37) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 2-A.Jeanty (23-D.Tranquill) [56-G.Karlaftis].
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 KC 4th & 18 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(8:45) 14-M.Araiza punts 54 yards to LV 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-M.Benson.
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Q3 LV 4th & 11 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(4:49) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to KC 15, Center-47-A.Ward. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 42 for 27 yards (50-S.Olubi).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(3:43) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to LV 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 23-D.Laube.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LV 4th & 5 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(:40) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to KC 21, Center-47-A.Ward. 81-N.Remigio to KC 21 for no gain. PENALTY on KC-81-N.Remigio, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at KC 21.
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Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 88%
(11:17) 14-M.Gay 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(9:50) 14-M.Araiza punts 59 yards to LV 6, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Benson to LV 10 for 4 yards (29-X.Nwankpa).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 30 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 82%
(4:58) 14-M.Gay 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 53 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 31%
(1:26) 14-M.Araiza punts 52 yards to LV 1, impetus ends at LV 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-29-X.Nwankpa.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 84 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 34%
(:37) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty ran ob at LV 28 for 12 yards (20-N.Williams; 38-L.Sneed).
See the full breakdown →
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Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 22Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 91%
(11:58) 11-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SEA 4th & 13 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(10:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LAC 23, Center-41-C.Stoll. 12-D.Davis MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 25, RECOVERED by SEA-57-C.O'Toole at LAC 23.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(8:20) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to SEA 18, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SEA 4th & 19 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(5:11) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LAC 18, Center-41-C.Stoll. 12-D.Davis to LAC 18 for no gain (57-C.O'Toole). PENALTY on SEA-57-C.O'Toole, Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 18.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 12 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 48%
(2:40) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SEA 4th & 5 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(1:12) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to LAC 21, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LAC 4th & 11 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(14:20) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to SEA 40, Center-47-J.Harris. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 41 for 1 yard (33-D.Leonard). PENALTY on SEA-1-J.Neal, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 40.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SEA 4th & 9 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 45%
(11:51) 4-M.Dickson punts 34 yards to LAC 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(10:30) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to SEA 35, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 19 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23%
(3:37) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to SEA 25, Center-47-J.Harris. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 37 for 12 yards (32-K.Williamson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EPp(convert) 54%
(2:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 30 yards to LAC 26, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-30-A.Finley.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 14Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%
(5:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden to SEA 9 for 5 yards (21-D.Witherspoon) [99-L.Williams].
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%
(1:22) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SEA 4th & 8 at the 48 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 40%
(4:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to LAC 7, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-1-J.Neal.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 90 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.83 EPp(convert) 40%
(3:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 1-Q.Johnston to SEA 46 for 44 yards (24-R.Thomas).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SEA 4th & 17 at the 60 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(1:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to LAC 11, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
See the full breakdown →
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Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(13:25) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to LA 14, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 15 for 1 yard (7-K.Ringo).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 11Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%
(8:42) 4-J.Elliott 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LA 4th & 12 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%
(2:12) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 47Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 37%
(14:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 9-M.Lemon to LA 34 for 13 yards (5-K.Kinchens).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 65Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EPp(convert) 64%
(8:49) 42-E.Evans punts 52 yards to PHI 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 16 yards (36-M.Pulley; 53-N.Landman).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PHI 4th & 14 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 24%
(7:08) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to LA 7, Center-41-R.Underwood, downed by PHI-7-K.Ringo.
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Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 93Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(6:42) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to PHI 42, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-B.Covey pushed ob at LA 17 for 41 yards (48-O.Speights).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PHI 4th & 15 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(1:08) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to LA 21, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 48%
(13:20) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to PHI 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 85-B.Covey.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(11:58) 10-B.Mann punts 45 yards to LA 37, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 40 for 3 yards (80-D.Cooper).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73% p(FG) 28%
(10:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to PHI 47 for 4 yards (11-J.Campbell).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 81%
(7:20) 92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(6:32) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to LA 10, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 33 for 23 yards (42-S.Mondon). PENALTY on LA-88-J.Whittington, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 25.
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Q3 LA 4th & 18 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(3:21) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to PHI 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 2 yards (33-D.Connors; 36-M.Pulley).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 62Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(1:07) 61-W.Lampkin reported in as eligible. 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 38 for no gain (53-N.Landman).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 66%
(14:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%
(7:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 80-D.Cooper.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 PHI 4th & 9 at the 59 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(3:07) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to LA 10, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 21 for 11 yards (7-K.Ringo; 42-S.Mondon).
See the full breakdown →
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Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 43%
(13:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback. PENALTY on MIA-25-J.Wood, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 20.
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Q1 MIA 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(11:04) 48-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to MIN 26, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price ran ob at MIA 38 for 36 yards (84-R.Miller).
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Q1 MIN 4th & 14 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 84%
(7:57) 16-W.Reichard 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 MIA 4th & 12 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(2:50) 48-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to MIN 21, Center-46-T.Addington, downed by MIA-46-T.Addington. ** Injury Update: MIA-42-J.Woodard has returned to the game.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 19 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(14:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to MIA 26, Center-42-A.DePaola. 6-M.Washington to MIA 26 for no gain (5-Z.Vaughn).
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Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(12:26) 48-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price to MIN 18 for 3 yards (35-R.Taylor; 32-J.Simpson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 79%
(7:13) 16-W.Reichard 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 43%
(5:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 20 yards to MIA 28, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(2:53) 48-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to MIN 24, Center-46-T.Addington, downed by MIA-0-O.Gordon. MIA-35-R.Taylor was injured during the play. The penalty was assisted by replay.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 30% p(FG) 98%
(11:58) 47-R.Patterson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIN 4th & 11 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 91%
(6:38) 16-W.Reichard 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIA 4th & 5 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(4:21) 48-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to MIN 14, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price pushed ob at MIN 26 for 12 yards (1-J.Tolbert).
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Q3 MIN 4th & 12 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(2:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 31 yards to MIA 45, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 82%
(10:08) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIA 27 for 3 yards (9-J.Uche; 20-J.Brooks).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 11Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%
(6:43) 16-W.Reichard 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(5:48) 48-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to MIN 34, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 4-M.Price. PENALTY on MIN-82-J.Jones, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 34.
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Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(13:41) 39-T.Doman punts 59 yards to NE 3, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-T.Couch.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 29Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 80%
(7:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs pushed ob at BUF 14 for 15 yards (1-M.Hairston).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 41Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 52%
(3:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson to NE 32 for 9 yards (14-R.Spillane).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EPp(convert) 56%
(8:35) 39-T.Doman punts 43 yards to NE 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones to NE 37 for 17 yards (83-K.Latu).
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Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(:40) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to BUF 15, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 31 for 16 yards (48-N.Obiazor).
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Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 17Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 94%
(10:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs ran ob at BUF 8 for 9 yards.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(6:32) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to NE 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones to NE 11 for 1 yard (19-G.Dortch). PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NE 11.
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Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(3:33) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to BUF 11, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 11 for no gain (49-E.Hunter).
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Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(2:36) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to NE 37, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
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Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EPp(convert) 61%
(:56) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 92%
(11:11) 16-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
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Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EPp(convert) 50%
(6:45) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%
(9:14) 4-D.Swift left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.Swift left guard to NYJ 1 for no gain (21-B.Stephens).
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 95Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(7:35) 14-A.McNamara punts 60 yards to CHI 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 43 for 8 yards (37-Q.Stiggers).
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Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 21Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 92%
(2:56) 4-D.Swift right end to NYJ 8 for 13 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
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Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%
(:27) 25-K.Monangai right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 94%
(8:20) 19-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 12Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EPp(convert) 59% p(FG) 97%
(2:32) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(1:51) 14-A.McNamara punts 45 yards to CHI 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%
(:02) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 58%
(9:59) 14-A.McNamara punts 37 yards to CHI 4, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-84-M.McClain.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%
(7:05) 19-J.Sanders 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(1:06) 14-A.McNamara punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%
(10:04) 8-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 75Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EPp(convert) 70%
(12:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 68 yards to PIT 7, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-K.Wetjen pushed ob at PIT 22 for 15 yards (86-B.Whiteheart).
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Q1 CLE 4th & 9 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 46%
(1:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to PIT 1, impetus ends at PIT 1, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-24-D.Thomas.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(10:46) 19-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to CLE 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 78%
(5:26) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%
(:12) 9-C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
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Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(13:34) 19-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to CLE 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 22 for 14 yards (41-P.Wilson). PENALTY on CLE-26-M.Harden, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at CLE 8.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 13 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(10:21) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to PIT 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 43 for 15 yards (24-D.Thomas; 31-D.McMillon).
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Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(8:50) 19-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-K.Concepcion pushed ob at CLE 16 for 10 yards (41-P.Wilson).
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Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 26Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 85%
(6:42) 25-A.Szmyt 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(5:40) 19-C.Johnston punts 62 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 81 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(3:41) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 81 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 38 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 60%
(:15) 25-A.Szmyt 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 5Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 98%
(12:13) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 18 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(2:35) 30-R.Eckley punts 45 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-C.Dike ran ob at TEN 30 for 20 yards (80-D.Smythe). PENALTY on TEN-41-E.Hallett, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at TEN 15.
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Q1 TEN 4th & 11 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(:17) 3-T.Townsend punts 63 yards to BAL 19, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%
(8:20) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 20-T.Pollard. 20-T.Pollard right guard to BAL 2 for no gain (92-N.Madubuike).
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Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 40%
(1:46) 3-T.Townsend punts 35 yards to BAL 12, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-56-T.Jones.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59%
(1:05) 30-R.Eckley punts 51 yards to TEN 30, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-38-K.Martin.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EPp(convert) 56%
(12:48) 30-R.Eckley punts 50 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 5 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%
(6:55) 6-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 37%
(3:44) 30-R.Eckley punts 44 yards to TEN 4, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-C.Dike ran ob at TEN 14 for 10 yards (85-J.Cuevas).
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Q3 TEN 4th & 10 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(2:10) 3-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to BAL 32, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-L.Wester to BAL 43 for 11 yards (36-J.Chestnut; 38-T.Burgess). PENALTY on TEN-21-M.Robinson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 43.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 11 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 26%
(:11) 30-R.Eckley punts 38 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(14:09) 3-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to BAL 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-L.Wester pushed ob at BAL 22 for no gain (41-E.Hallett).
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Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(10:25) 30-R.Eckley punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 13 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(9:46) 3-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to BAL 29, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-L.Wester MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at BAL 25.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 22 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 90%
(3:24) 33-T.Loop 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 36 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.97 EPp(convert) 28% p(FG) 68%
(1:51) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 14-C.Tate to BAL 3 for 33 yards (24-M.Starks) [15-M.Green].
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