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Jacksonville Jaguars

3-1 HC Liam Coen
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Cincinnati Bengals

2-2 HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 13:00 ET Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

JAX
48.6%
CIN
51.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.007 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.107 vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX) +0.221 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

JAX 22 15–29
–
CIN 25 18–32
Projected margin: CIN by 3 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

JAX

Montaric Brown CB Questionable Hamstring
Christian Braswell CB Questionable Knee
Albert Regis DT Questionable Elbow

CIN

Kyle Dugger S Out Quadricep
Colbie Young WR Out Knee
B.J. Hill DT Questionable Achilles
Dalton Risner G Questionable Knee
Bryan Cook S Questionable Ankle
Swayze Bozeman LB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 22
–
CIN 17

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:23 FG JAX (2:23) 39-C.Little 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – CIN 0
  • Q2 10:07 FG CIN (10:07) 2-E.McPherson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. JAX 3 – CIN 3
  • Q2 04:19 FG JAX (4:19) 39-C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 6 – CIN 3
  • Q2 01:27 TD JAX (1:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 7-Bri.Thomas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 12 – CIN 3
  • Q3 08:48 TD CIN (8:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-29-E.Murray was injured during the play. JAX 13 – CIN 9
  • Q3 03:05 FG JAX (3:05) 39-C.Little 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 16 – CIN 10
  • Q4 06:42 TD JAX (6:42) (Shotgun) 24-C.Rodriguez left guard for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 22 – CIN 10
  • Q4 03:33 TD CIN (3:33) (No Huddle) 9-J.Burrow right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 22 – CIN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:27) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 24 for 4 yards (47-D.Gardeck). PENALTY on CIN-38-D.Ivey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:50) 8-R.Rehkow punts 42 yards to JAX 19, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 67%

    (2:23) 39-C.Little 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (10:07) 2-E.McPherson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (4:19) 39-C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown to JAX 45 for 9 yards (2-J.Lewis).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 69%

    (3:05) 39-C.Little 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 57%

    (11:47) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:39) 8-R.Rehkow punts 41 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-W.Wagner. 11-P.Washington to JAX 24 for 3 yards (46-W.Wagner).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 8 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 27%

    (1:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 17 for 9 yards (50-B.Combs; 25-R.Lane).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.43 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%

    (:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to JAX 12 for 9 yards (25-R.Lane).

    See the full breakdown →