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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 37

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 39-C.Little 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.75 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.99 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model