Playoff & Super Bowl Odds
A Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season and playoffs, using the same win-probability model behind every prediction on this site, run recursively across a simulated bracket, thousands of times.
30,000 simulated seasons, run 2026-10-20. Team strength is frozen at each team's form as of that date and does not update as real games get played. This is a preseason-style snapshot, not a live weekly page like Standings. See How It Works for what else is simplified (playoff tiebreakers, playoff-game conditions).
Los Angeles Rams
30.3%
18.2%
2-4
Buffalo Bills
29.2%
17.0%
5-1
Jacksonville Jaguars
20.8%
11.2%
4-2
New England Patriots
18.8%
10.2%
4-2
Seattle Seahawks
16.1%
7.4%
3-3
Green Bay Packers
11.4%
5.3%
4-2
Detroit Lions
9.3%
4.5%
3-2
Cincinnati Bengals
7.9%
3.4%
3-2
Denver Broncos
6.8%
2.9%
4-2
San Francisco 49ers
6.5%
2.6%
6-0
Houston Texans
5.3%
2.5%
2-4
Baltimore Ravens
4.7%
2.0%
4-2
Chicago Bears
4.5%
1.9%
4-2
New York Giants
4.5%
1.9%
3-2
Dallas Cowboys
3.0%
1.3%
2-4
Atlanta Falcons
2.9%
1.1%
2-4
New Orleans Saints
2.9%
1.1%
2-4
Philadelphia Eagles
2.7%
1.0%
2-4
Carolina Panthers
2.6%
1.0%
3-2
Kansas City Chiefs
2.4%
1.0%
5-0
Pittsburgh Steelers
1.8%
0.6%
4-2
Indianapolis Colts
1.4%
0.5%
2-4
Minnesota Vikings
1.4%
0.5%
5-0
Washington Commanders
1.0%
0.4%
1-4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
0.8%
0.2%
1-5
Los Angeles Chargers
0.5%
0.1%
0-6
Arizona Cardinals
0.2%
0.1%
2-4
Las Vegas Raiders
0.2%
0.1%
3-3
Cleveland Browns
0.1%
0.0%
4-2
Miami Dolphins
0.1%
0.0%
0-5
Tennessee Titans
0.1%
0.0%
1-5
New York Jets
0.0%
0.0%
2-4
"Reach Super Bowl" sums to 200% league-wide (100% per conference, exactly one AFC and one NFC team gets there). "Win It All" sums to 100%: one team wins every simulation. Comparing these against an outside "Super Bowl odds" chart only lines up if it's using the same one of the two.
Most Likely Super Bowl Matchups
Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams
Jacksonville Jaguars
Los Angeles Rams
New England Patriots
Los Angeles Rams
Buffalo Bills
Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills
Green Bay Packers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Seattle Seahawks
New England Patriots
Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills
Detroit Lions
Cincinnati Bengals
Los Angeles Rams
Jacksonville Jaguars
Green Bay Packers
Vs. a PFF Preseason Graphic
An independent check, not a claim of being right: this project's own model, run the same way, against a well-known outside preseason graphic. Disagreement is expected: different model families reasonably see the league differently.
