Playoff & Super Bowl Odds
A Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season and playoffs, using the same win-probability model behind every prediction on this site, run recursively across a simulated bracket, thousands of times.
30,000 simulated seasons, run 2026-09-08. Team strength is frozen at each team's form as of that date and does not update as real games get played. This is a preseason-style snapshot, not a live weekly page like Standings. See How It Works for what else is simplified (playoff tiebreakers, playoff-game conditions).
Los Angeles Rams
33.2%
22.2%
12-5
Buffalo Bills
28.0%
14.8%
12-5
Jacksonville Jaguars
22.1%
11.1%
13-4
New England Patriots
14.8%
6.8%
14-3
Seattle Seahawks
13.7%
7.0%
14-3
Green Bay Packers
11.5%
5.8%
9-7
Baltimore Ravens
9.8%
4.2%
8-9
Philadelphia Eagles
7.9%
3.7%
11-6
Cincinnati Bengals
6.7%
2.8%
6-11
Denver Broncos
6.3%
2.4%
14-3
Detroit Lions
5.1%
2.3%
9-8
New Orleans Saints
4.8%
2.1%
6-11
San Francisco 49ers
4.8%
2.3%
12-5
Dallas Cowboys
4.6%
2.3%
7-9
Houston Texans
4.0%
1.6%
12-5
Atlanta Falcons
3.6%
1.6%
8-9
Chicago Bears
3.5%
1.5%
11-6
Kansas City Chiefs
2.7%
1.0%
6-11
New York Giants
2.7%
1.1%
4-13
Pittsburgh Steelers
1.9%
0.7%
10-7
Indianapolis Colts
1.5%
0.5%
8-9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1.4%
0.6%
8-9
Minnesota Vikings
1.3%
0.4%
9-8
Carolina Panthers
1.0%
0.4%
8-9
Los Angeles Chargers
1.0%
0.3%
11-6
Miami Dolphins
0.7%
0.2%
7-10
Washington Commanders
0.7%
0.3%
5-12
Arizona Cardinals
0.3%
0.1%
3-14
Cleveland Browns
0.1%
0.0%
5-12
Las Vegas Raiders
0.1%
0.0%
3-14
Tennessee Titans
0.1%
0.0%
3-14
New York Jets
0.0%
0.0%
3-14
"Reach Super Bowl" sums to 200% league-wide (100% per conference, exactly one AFC and one NFC team gets there). "Win It All" sums to 100%: one team wins every simulation. Comparing these against an outside "Super Bowl odds" chart only lines up if it's using the same one of the two.
Most Likely Super Bowl Matchups
Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams
Jacksonville Jaguars
Los Angeles Rams
New England Patriots
Los Angeles Rams
Buffalo Bills
Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Ravens
Los Angeles Rams
Buffalo Bills
Green Bay Packers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Seattle Seahawks
Jacksonville Jaguars
Green Bay Packers
Cincinnati Bengals
Los Angeles Rams
Buffalo Bills
Philadelphia Eagles
Vs. a PFF Preseason Graphic
An independent check, not a claim of being right: this project's own model, run the same way, against a well-known outside preseason graphic. Disagreement is expected: different model families reasonably see the league differently.