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Best Bets — Week 9

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

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ARI @

SEA

Model: SEA 78.7% · strong edge

SEA defense: -0.190 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

NYJ @

Model: KC 78.3% · strong edge

NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

LV @

Model: SF 76.2% · strong edge

LV offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

CLE @

Model: NO 75.7% · strong edge

CLE offense: -0.246 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

TB @

CHI

Model: CHI 67.4% · clear edge

QB edge to CHI: Caleb Williams (CHI) +0.201 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) -0.119 EPA/dropback

LA @

WAS

Model: LA 67.3% · clear edge

LA offense: +0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

GB @

Model: NE 66.4% · clear edge

NE defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

BUF @

MIN

Model: BUF 62.4% · clear edge

MIN offense: -0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)