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Best Bets — Week 14

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

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TEN @

DET

Model: DET 79.2% · strong edge

TEN offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

PIT @

JAX

Model: JAX 78.1% · strong edge

QB edge to JAX: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) +0.284 vs Aaron Rodgers (PIT) -0.105 EPA/dropback

MIN @

Model: NE 77.1% · strong edge

MIN offense: -0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

NYG @

SEA

Model: SEA 74.7% · strong edge

SEA defense: -0.190 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

KC @

CIN

Model: CIN 68.0% · clear edge

KC offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

TB @

BAL

Model: BAL 63.7% · clear edge

BAL on 7 more days rest than TB

LAC @

Model: LV 62.9% · clear edge

LV offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)