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Best Bets — Week 1

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026

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CLE @

JAX

Model: JAX 84.9% · strong edge

CLE offense: -0.246 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

NYJ @

TEN

Model: TEN 72.8% · strong edge

NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

TB @

CIN

Model: CIN 66.7% · clear edge

QB edge to CIN: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.142 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) -0.083 EPA/dropback

NO @

DET

Model: DET 65.7% · clear edge

Indoors — weather neutralised

NE @

SEA

Model: SEA 64.8% · clear edge

SEA defense: -0.190 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

ARI @

LAC

Model: LAC 62.4% · clear edge

LAC offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)