Win Probability
Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- NYJ defense: +0.224 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- TEN defense: +0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- TEN offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- QB edge to TEN: Cam Ward (TEN) -0.144 vs Geno Smith (NYJ) -0.200 EPA/dropback
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 1
NYJ
TEN
Pulled fresh for 2026 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:50 TD NYJ (10:50) 16-K.Sadiq left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – TEN 0
- Q1 05:08 FG TEN (5:08) 6-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend. NYJ 7 – TEN 3
- Q2 05:06 FG NYJ (5:06) 19-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 10 – TEN 3
- Q3 09:44 TD NYJ (9:44) 20-B.Hall left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. NYJ 16 – TEN 3
- Q3 04:38 FG NYJ (4:38) 19-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 20 – TEN 3
- Q4 05:05 FG NYJ (5:05) 19-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 23 – TEN 3
- Q4 02:45 TD TEN (2:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 5-E.Ayomanor for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 23 – TEN 9
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 24Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 89%
(5:08) 6-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(3:29) 14-A.McNamara punts 45 yards to TEN 37, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-51-F.Mauigoa. TEN-17-C.Dike was injured during the play.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(1:58) 3-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to NYJ 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 61%
(10:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 5-G.Wilson to TEN 31 for 9 yards (23-K.Winston; 24-A.Taylor).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 22Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 91%
(7:29) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen left guard to TEN 19 for 3 yards (53-A.Hill; 23-K.Winston).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 14Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%
(5:06) 19-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 71%
(2:44) 19-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 38%
(1:18) 3-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 48%
(13:09) 3-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 61Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 55%
(8:51) 3-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to NYJ 7, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 22 for 15 yards (21-M.Robinson; 44-M.Diabate).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 78%
(4:38) 19-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TEN 4th & 9 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 54%
(1:12) 3-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EPp(convert) 70%
(14:16) 14-A.McNamara punts 50 yards to TEN 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 17-C.Dike to TEN 16 for -5 yards (82-A.Smith).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TEN 4th & 13 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(12:09) 3-T.Townsend punts 37 yards to 50, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 46%
(9:46) 14-A.McNamara punts 44 yards to TEN 2, impetus ends at TEN 2, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(8:11) 3-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to NYJ 33, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 47 for 14 yards (21-M.Robinson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 75%
(5:05) 19-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
See the full breakdown →
