4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 24

Tennessee Titans 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 6-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.72 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 24, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 34, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP