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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 36

New York Jets 10 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 19-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.88 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.26 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model