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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 82

Tennessee Titans 3 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 3-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to NYJ 33, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 47 for 14 yards (21-M.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.95 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 82, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 40, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model