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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 3 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(8:51) 3-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to NYJ 7, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 22 for 15 yards (21-M.Robinson; 44-M.Diabate).

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.30 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 20, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP