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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 14

New York Jets 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 19-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.19 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP