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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 49

Tennessee Titans 3 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 3-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.80 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP