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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 3 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 3-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to NYJ 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.73 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 20, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model