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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 82

New York Jets 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(3:29) 14-A.McNamara punts 45 yards to TEN 37, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-51-F.Mauigoa. TEN-17-C.Dike was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.72 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 82, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 40, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model