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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 40

New York Jets 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(10:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 5-G.Wilson to TEN 31 for 9 yards (23-K.Winston; 24-A.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.38 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model