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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 32

New York Jets 17 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 19-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.48 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model