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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 71

New York Jets 20 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 14-A.McNamara punts 50 yards to TEN 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 17-C.Dike to TEN 16 for -5 yards (82-A.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.33 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 29, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP