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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 22

New York Jets 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(7:29) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen left guard to TEN 19 for 3 yards (53-A.Hill; 23-K.Winston).

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.33 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model