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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 45

Tennessee Titans 3 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 3-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.26 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP