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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 87

Tennessee Titans 3 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 3-T.Townsend punts 37 yards to 50, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.05 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 87, worth -5.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 45, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model