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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 43

Tennessee Titans 3 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 3-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model