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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 46

New York Jets 20 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 14-A.McNamara punts 44 yards to TEN 2, impetus ends at TEN 2, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.19 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model