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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 34

New York Jets 20 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 19-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.64 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model