4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
ARI Away

Arizona Cardinals

1-0 HC Jonathan Gannon
@
LAC Home

Los Angeles Chargers

0-1 HC Jim Harbaugh
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 16:25 ET SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 8.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

ARI
36.6%
LAC
63.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.195 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Jacoby Brissett (ARI): -0.005 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

ARI 21 14–28
–
LAC 24 17–31
Projected margin: LAC by 3 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 1

ARI

Garrett Williams CB Out Achilles
Isaiah Adams G Out Knee
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson S Out Ribs
Jeremiyah Love RB Questionable Ankle

LAC

Deane Leonard CB Out Abdomen
Tuli Tuipulotu DE Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 26
–
LAC 14

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:54 TD ARI (8:54) (Shotgun) 4-J.Love left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – LAC 0
  • Q1 04:29 TD LAC (4:29) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – LAC 6
  • Q2 06:54 FG ARI (6:54) 38-C.Ryland 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 10 – LAC 7
  • Q2 00:04 FG ARI (:04) 38-C.Ryland 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 13 – LAC 7
  • Q3 07:29 FG ARI (7:29) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 16 – LAC 7
  • Q3 06:07 TD LAC (6:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 15-L.McConkey for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – LAC 13
  • Q4 11:48 TD ARI (11:48) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 22 – LAC 14
  • Q4 02:37 FG ARI (2:37) 38-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 26 – LAC 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 72%

    (14:55) 38-C.Ryland 54 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (6:54) 38-C.Ryland 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 99%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at ARI 13 for -10 yards (55-D.Stills).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:14) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to ARI 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ARI 4th & 11 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (7:29) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 40%

    (2:44) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to LAC 12, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 16 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:18) 16-J.Scott punts 51 yards to ARI 31, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (14:04) 12-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:28) 16-J.Scott punt is BLOCKED by 80-S.Fehoko, Center-47-J.Harris, recovered by LAC-30-A.Ingold at LAC 3.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (4:51) 12-B.Gillikin punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 18 at the 77 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 83-D.Njoku to LAC 38 for 15 yards (2-W.Johnson; 28-A.Wingard). Penalty on LAC-83-D.Njoku, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 82%

    (2:37) 38-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 62 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 86-O.Gadsden to LAC 44 for 6 yards (2-W.Johnson; 1-Ma.Wilson).

    See the full breakdown →