4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 61

Arizona Cardinals 23 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:51) 12-B.Gillikin punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.75 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP