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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 58

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(12:14) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to ARI 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.55 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 58, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model