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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 30

Arizona Cardinals 23 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 38-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +1.92 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.13 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model