Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 18 at the 77

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Arizona Cardinals 23

What Actually Happened

(4:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 83-D.Njoku to LAC 38 for 15 yards (2-W.Johnson; 28-A.Wingard). Penalty on LAC-83-D.Njoku, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

What Happened

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.41 EP
72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.10 EP