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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 82

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(:18) 16-J.Scott punts 51 yards to ARI 31, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.41 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 82, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 40, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model