4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 9

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 38-C.Ryland 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.36 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP