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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 49

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to LAC 12, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.40 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model