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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 60

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(14:04) 12-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.00 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP