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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 62

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Arizona Cardinals 26

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 86-O.Gadsden to LAC 44 for 6 yards (2-W.Johnson; 1-Ma.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.01 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 62, worth -0.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model