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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 3

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at ARI 13 for -10 yards (55-D.Stills).

The Three Options

GO +2.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 3, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model