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Best Bets — Week 6

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026

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NYJ @

Model: NE 89.6% · strong edge

NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

ARI @

Model: LA 75.5% · strong edge

LA offense: +0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

TEN @

IND

Model: IND 74.3% · strong edge

TEN offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

LAC @

Model: KC 71.4% · strong edge

LAC offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

BUF @

Model: BUF 70.8% · strong edge

LV offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

WAS @

Model: SF 68.1% · clear edge

SF offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

DAL @

Model: GB 64.5% · clear edge

GB offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)