TEN @ IND — 4th & Data

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Indianapolis Colts

2-4 HC Shane Steichen

Sunday 2026-10-18 · 13:00 ET Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

TEN

25.7%

IND

74.3%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

TEN offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
TEN defense: +0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
IND offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
QB edge to IND: Daniel Jones (IND) -0.022 vs Cam Ward (TEN) -0.142 EPA/dropback
IND defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TEN 20 13–27

–

IND 24 17–31

Projected margin: IND by 4 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

TEN

Jordan Elliott DT Out Not injury related - personal matter

Kevin Winston Jr. S Out Quadricep

Joshua Williams CB Questionable Pectoral

Tyjae Spears RB Questionable Knee

IND

Ashton Dulin WR Out Hamstring

Jaylon Carlies LB Out Ribs

Tyler Warren TE Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 26

–

IND 20

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q2 11:12 TD IND (11:12) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – IND 6
Q2 02:09 FG IND (2:09) 3-S.Shrader 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. TEN 0 – IND 10
Q2 00:15 FG IND (:15) 3-S.Shrader 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. TEN 0 – IND 13
Q3 13:33 FG TEN (13:33) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend. TEN 3 – IND 13
Q3 03:26 FG TEN (3:26) 6-J.Slye 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend. TEN 6 – IND 13
Q4 13:04 TD TEN (13:04) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 14-C.Tate for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 12 – IND 13
Q4 10:25 TD TEN (10:25) 8-R.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by 36-J.Chestnut, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by TEN-7-O.Oladejo at IND 14. 7-O.Oladejo for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-8-R.Sanchez was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. TEN 19 – IND 13
Q4 05:36 TD IND (5:36) 28-J.Taylor left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 20 – IND 19
Q4 02:07 FG TEN (2:07) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend. TEN 23 – IND 20
Q4 00:47 FG TEN (:47) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend. TEN 26 – IND 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 47

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP

p(convert) 51% p(FG) 41%

(9:44) 3-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to IND 9, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 85

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP

p(convert) 73%

(15:00) 3-T.Townsend punts 64 yards to IND 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 6-A.Gould to IND 30 for 9 yards (38-T.Burgess; 56-T.Jones).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 57

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP

p(convert) 70%

(8:49) 3-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 5

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EP

p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

(2:09) 3-S.Shrader 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 29

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 82%

(:15) 3-S.Shrader 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 11

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

(13:33) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 42

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 59% p(FG) 54%

(10:18) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 2-J.Downs to TEN 38 for 4 yards (26-M.Harris).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 38

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 64%

(3:26) 6-J.Slye 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 IND 4th & 17 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(15:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to TEN 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 17-C.Dike to IND 28 for 58 yards (34-K.Gushiken).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 IND 4th & 12 at the 63

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(10:25) 8-R.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by 36-J.Chestnut, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by TEN-7-O.Oladejo at IND 14. 7-O.Oladejo for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-8-R.Sanchez was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 31 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 79%

(2:07) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 IND 4th & 17 at the 69 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.66 EP

p(convert) 28%

(1:07) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 13-L.Treadwell (53-A.Hill).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 26 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 86%

(:47) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 46 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.93 EP

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 43%

(:04) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right (26-M.Harris).
See the full breakdown →

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