Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 63

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 8-R.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by 36-J.Chestnut, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by TEN-7-O.Oladejo at IND 14. 7-O.Oladejo for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-8-R.Sanchez was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.58 EP
68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model