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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 46

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Tennessee Titans 26

What Actually Happened

(:04) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right (26-M.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +1.07 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.93 EP