4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 57

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 3-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.13 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP