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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 5

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:09) 3-S.Shrader 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +3.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.18 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 5, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EP