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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 85

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 3-T.Townsend punts 64 yards to IND 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 6-A.Gould to IND 30 for 9 yards (38-T.Burgess; 56-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.36 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 85, worth -5.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.45 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 43, worth -2.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP