4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 47

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 3-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to IND 9, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.78 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP