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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 38

Tennessee Titans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 6-J.Slye 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.91 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model