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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 26

Tennessee Titans 23 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(:47) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +1.24 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model