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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 11

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.79 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP