Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 69

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Tennessee Titans 23

(1:07) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 13-L.Treadwell (53-A.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

What Happened

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.53 EP
72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 69, worth -2.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.66 EP