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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 31

Tennessee Titans 20 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.47 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model