Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Tennessee Titans 6

(15:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to TEN 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 17-C.Dike to IND 28 for 58 yards (34-K.Gushiken).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.37 EP
72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model